Cemex: a Mexican boom, measured in dollars

Cemex reports its third quarter on 26 October.[3] Its last report, in July, was the kind companies hope for. Second-quarter EBITDA rose 24% to 1,018 million dollars, sales rose 12% to 4.6 billion, and management raised its full-year EBITDA growth forecast to between 16% and 17%, up from high single digits.[1][2]

The stock has gone the other way. It closed at 21.48 pesos on 23 July and at 19.01 on 20 October, down 11.5%, and 18.8% below its May high of 23.40.[4]

The forecast went up. The stock went down. The report says why, if you read it in pesos.

Mexico, in two currencies

Cemex reports in US dollars. Its Mexican business sells in pesos. In the second quarter, Mexico’s sales rose 24% in dollars but 12% on a like-for-like basis, which strips out currency moves. Mexico’s EBITDA rose 42% in dollars and 27% like-for-like.[1]

The prices tell the same story. The price of cement in Mexico rose 18% measured in dollars, and 6% in pesos. Ready-mix concrete rose 12% in dollars, 2% in pesos.[1] A strong peso does a lot of the lifting once the results are translated.

None of this means the business is standing still. Mexican cement volumes grew 7%, the second straight quarter of growth, supported by self-construction and government-backed programmes such as Rural Roads and social housing. The company calls social housing “a meaningful lever of growth”.[1] Mexico’s EBITDA margin rose to 37.5% from 32.7%.[1] That is a good quarter. It is not a 42% quarter.

Margins without volume

Across the whole company, the volume picture is flat. Cement volumes rose 1% in the quarter, ready-mix was unchanged and aggregates fell 2%.[1] The growth came from cost. Cemex raised the savings target for its Project Cutting Edge programme by 75 million dollars to 475 million,[2] and cost of sales fell by 1.1 percentage points to 64.8% of sales.[1] Second-quarter EBITDA also included a one-off 42 million dollar settlement of a claim in Europe.[1]

Cutting costs is real money. But a company that grows profit faster than it grows volume eventually runs out of costs to cut.

Below the operating line

Two more numbers sit further down the report. First-half net income attributable to shareholders was 574 million dollars, down 45% from 1,052 million, even as operating earnings rose 44%. Second-quarter net income on its own rose 9% to 347 million.[1] And net debt rose from 4,958 million dollars at the end of 2025 to 6,225 million at the end of June. Most of the increase comes from redeeming 1,000 million dollars of 5.125% subordinated notes.[1]

What to watch on 26 October

• Mexico like-for-like. The dollar growth figure will flatter or punish Cemex depending on the peso. The like-for-like column is the business.
• Volumes. Whether consolidated volumes finally grow, or the margin story is still doing all the work.
• Net debt. Where it settles after the redemption.

Cemex has become a very good cost-cutting story. The market seems to be asking whether it is also a growth story, and the honest answer sits in the like-for-like column.