Walmex: traffic stops falling, profit doesn't

Walmart de México y Centroamérica’s third-quarter net profit fell 6.1% to 11,027 million pesos, from 11,747 million a year earlier.[1] Consolidated revenue rose 3% to 248,828 million pesos.[1] EBITDA barely moved, up 0.4% to 25,372 million, and its margin fell 30 basis points to 10.2%.[1]

The good news came from the shop floor. Finance chief Camilo Cañedo said traffic in Mexico held stable against last year for the first time in nine quarters.[2] That means visits stopped falling. It doesn’t mean they started growing.[2]

The customers have stopped leaving. The costs haven’t stopped arriving.

Why profit fell

General expenses rose 5.7%, which the company attributes mainly to investments in future growth, partly offset by productivity work.[1] Income tax rose 14.2% and took a larger share, moving from 1.9% to 2.1% of revenue.[1]

Ariel Méndez, an equity analyst at Banco Bx+, wrote that the retailer reported below consensus expectations, with revenue growing less than Mexican inflation and pressure continuing on margins and net profit.[1]

What the stores did

Mexican revenue rose 3.1% to 206,759 million pesos.[2] Same-store sales rose 1.7%, with the average ticket up 1.6%.[2] In other words, almost all of the same-store growth came from what each shopper spent. Sam’s Club had the highest same-store growth of any format in Mexico, although the reports give no figure for it.[3]

The gap between 3.1% and 1.7% suggests new space is doing part of the work. Walmex opened 42 stores in the quarter, 39 of them in Mexico, including 36 Bodega Aurrera, mainly in the Express format, and three Walmart Supercenters.[3] It ended September with 4,346 stores across Mexico and Central America.[3]

Its own-brand share in Mexico reached 18.1%, about 100 basis points higher than a year ago.[3]

The bill coming in 2027

Chief executive Cristian Barrientos Pozo said the cost of doing business in Mexico is rising, pointing to a minimum wage increase he expects to be around 12% next year.[4] The actual figure will be known in December.[4] The labour reform also cuts the working week gradually, from 48 hours to 46 in 2027 and to 40 by 2030.[4]

He acknowledged these changes will affect operating costs next year, and said the company will accelerate automation and productivity work to contain them while keeping its low-price strategy.[4] So a company whose expenses are already outrunning its revenue is telling investors that another cost increase is on the way.

The share

The stock fell 2.86% to 48.85 pesos before the results were published.[1] It closed at 50.44 MXN on 30 October, up 3.4% on the day.[5] It is down 17.1% over twelve months and 10.2% since the start of the year, 20.9% below its high of 63.74 MXN from November 2025 and 11.7% above its low of 45.15 MXN from 21 September.[5] Average daily volume over the last 20 sessions was 12.5 million shares, against 21.1 million in the earlier sessions.[5]

What to watch

• Traffic in Mexico. One stable quarter after eight weak ones needs a second to mean anything.
• December’s minimum wage decision. Management’s 12% is an expectation, not a fact yet.
• Expenses against revenue. Productivity work has to show up here, because 5.7% against 3% is not sustainable for long.

Walmex has steadied its traffic. Its costs are the next test.